How to Turn $1,000 Into $1 Million
By Rich Smith (TMFDitty)
January 25, 2006
Psst! Want to make a million bucks? Then read on...
Motley
Fool Hidden Gems investing has nothing to do with getting rich quick.
Sure, Tom Gardner's market-beating investment newsletter has had some quick and
astounding successes: Middleby has quadrupled, Transkaryotic Therapies tripled,
four other recommendations have doubled -- and relative newcomer Blackboard
might just beat them all, having already jumped more than 40% in only eight
months. Although this small cap could give back those gains (after all, the
market can be a volatile place), the team is confident in its superior
long-term prospects.
Around here, we adopt a "get rich slow" philosophy. Save money. Invest it
regularly. Let the magic of
compounding returns work for you. Our objective is to invest for the
long term. And I say "our objective" because we are all in this together,
discussing prospects and finds alike on our discussion boards and helping Tom
identify new small-cap prospects and keep track of developments at companies
already discovered.
When examining a prospect for nomination, we
look for companies with superior return on equity (ROE) -- something
north of 20%, as is the case with great long-term investments Legg Mason
(NYSE: LM) (21%) and Nokia
(NYSE: NOK) (28%). But we look for that characteristic among companies
sporting much smaller market caps, because unlike Legg Mason or Nokia, they
still have plenty of room to grow. Here are a few examples.
Data provided by Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
We also look for free cash flow and net cash on a balance sheet that is not
always reflected in a company's market capitalization (Papa John's has $24
million in cash and no long-term debt, for example). We believe that companies
sharing these traits can grow and beat the market over the years, just like
Legg Mason and Nokia.
In summary, we look for companies that combine business performance,
cash-raising prowess, and substantial undervaluation to create the potential to
double in value over three years.
This "two times in three years" formula will not always play out according to
plan. Out of 60 recommendations to date, 20 are down and 40 are up. More
importantly, the team has bested the S&P 500 by 20 percentage points over
the past two years. And through hard work and patience, we are confident that
over time, a lot of today's losers will be long-term winners, helping us
soundly beat the market averages.
So what's achievable? Let's look at two possible scenarios for long-term growth
among our Hidden Gems recommendations. Call them the "Retire Comfortably" and
"Set Your Grandkids Up for Life" scenarios.
Retire comfortably: $1 million in 45 years
We know that our recommendations are averaging impressive returns. But let's
not get greedy, and let's not extrapolate for decades out into the future what
has been a start beyond even the most optimistic expectations. What if we dial
back our expectations and assume a still very aggressive annualized 16.6%
return on our initial investment? In that case, $1,000 would take 54 months to
double. And under that scenario, it would take approximately 540 months for
$1,000 to double 10 times to reach $1 million -- or 45 years.
That should work out just about right for any Fools out there who have just
graduated from college, have $1,000 to invest right now, and who'd like a
chance at retiring comfortably on the proceeds around about age 65.
Set your grandkids up for life: $1 million in 75 years
Now for scenario No. 2. There are plenty of market skeptics out there
declaiming to all who will listen that the United States is entering a
long-term secular bear market. The Oracle of Omaha says that we should be
prepared to see overall stock market returns in the mid-single digits for the
foreseeable future.
Ah, but we're not investing in index mutual funds, folks. The dedicated Fools at
Hidden Gems are busily earning their keep helping our members to buy
just the good companies out there in the market -- rather than buying an index
that incorporates the returns of a grab bag of companies, be they good
investments, bad investments, or Enron common stock. Worst case, we're pretty
confident that over the long term, we can at the very least match, and more
likely beat, the market's historical performance by dint of hard work, diligent
research, and patient perseverance. With the broad stock market averaging just
above 10% annual returns across extended periods of time, that should assure us
a reasonable chance of at least doubling our $1,000 within 7.5 years. Total
time to $1 million: 75 years.
OK, admittedly, in 75 years' time, even you young'ns in short pants out there
will be far into retirement age. While you'll likely get your million
eventually, it may arrive too late to help pay for that vacation home in
Florida. Why, in 75 years, even your kids may have retired. But what about your
grandkids? And their kids? That $1 million could come in mighty handy to your
Foolish dynasty.
As for you, well, there's still hope even under this scenario. Because the fact
of the matter is that Fools don't invest $1,000 in one shot and then sit back
and wait for the money to roll in -- whether that money is going to be 75, 45,
or just 30 years in coming. We continue to save. We keep investing. Regularly.
Meaning that, even at the market average, you could accumulate $1 million a lot
sooner.
And with 24 high-percentage ideas for winning investments coming to your email
inbox every year -- plus a host of runner-up Watch List stocks and our patented
stable of Tiny Gems as supplements -- you'll never be at a loss for investment
ideas as you add to that initial $1,000 nest egg.
So, what are you waiting for? Time's marching on, and that money of yours isn't
going to grow itself uninvested. If you aspire to being a millionaire, are
willing to put forth the effort to get there, and have the patience necessary
to stick with quality companies through good times and bad, Motley Fool Hidden
Gems just might be for you.
Click here to sign up for a free trial. You'll enjoy immediate access
to all our back issues and past picks, with no obligation to subscribe. We look
forward to welcoming you to our merry band of prospectors for the stock
market's hidden treasures.
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